India’s most-accurate monetary policy forecaster predicts central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan will refrain from cutting interest rates for at least two quarters as he assesses risks from fiscal policy and food inflation. “The precondition for the next rate cut will be fiscal consolidation, passage of key economic reforms and food inflation behaving well,” said Gaurav Kapur, a senior economist in Mumbai at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, ranked first by Bloomberg for predicting Reserve Bank of India actions over two years. “If there is a general comfort that food will not play a spoilsport over the next six months, then the RBI may have a window of opportunity to reduce rates...
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